Arsenal should sell van Persie
December 13, 2011
Hold on, calm down, deep breaths…. hear me out, then shout/speak/swear !!
Before I start my reasoning, if you can call it that, I want to say how much I love Robin to bits, he is just the kind of Captain the club needed after being diddled somewhat by the last few. His goals this year, in particular this season, have potentially saved us from a major crisis.
However, the health and long-term of the club comes before any player.
Robin turns 29 next summer, that would mean he has peaked, we have seen from the great players at Arsenal and other clubs over the years that the prime age, the golden period for a player to perform at miraculous levels should he have the necessary minerals in the first place is 26-29.
Unfortunately for Arsenal and Robin, when he hit that golden period in season 08/09, he got sustained and lengthy injuries. This season he has stayed clear of injury and we can all see what this has led to.
So why sell him you ask? Well, it would seem highly unlikely that a season like this current one is possible again, look back at the stats of great EPL scorers and you will note the likes of Shearer and Henry having that one golden season (Shearer 97, Henry 02) where everything they hit found the onion bag. Granted they had plenty of other very good seasons, but the magical one is a one-off.
van Persie simply cannot produce what he has already for more than another 12-18 months tops and that is only on the premise he stays fully fit. Now when you calculate those probabilities, you begin to form other ideas.
So if a mug Spanish club wants to come in and offer in the region of 30-40M for him next summer, we should bite their arms off and re-invest in two strikers in the 22-25 age bracket and let Wenger work his magic on making them the next big thing.
Remy, Pato, Podolski, Benzema et al would certainly fall into the correct bracket. I am not talking about buying a 18 year old kid that will take 4 seasons to mature (unless we pull another Anelka or OX) but rather a hot prospect who is on the precipice of that golden period and needs the Wenger magic to give him the extra percentage points to make it count.
We don’t have stupid levels of debt anymore, and yes we make a mint, and yes we will make a bigger mint in the years to come when all the debt is paid off and in the very near term when old commercial deals are renewed, but we should still play it smart with our assets.
Maybe that’s the Stockbroker in me coming out. I advise very wealthy clients and small institutions on where to park their hard-earned, and I tend to follow the Benjamin Graham/Warren Buffett school of value investing. You buy when undervalued and under-loved, but full of promise and potential earnings, you then reap in the capital gains and yields during the ripe years and maybe just before the stock tops out, you recapitalise and reinvest at the start of another cycle. A lot easier said then done let me tell you.
We have the greatest sporting manager in the world in comparative terms to the likes of Buffett, Soros et al – I think it prudent to allow him to take the lead.
I know this will be a sacrilegious view as seen by many a gooner, but what if Wenger agrees? sign him to a new improved contract now, and then get him out next summer for top dollar without fear of losing him on the cheap as his contract nears expiry?
I’m thinking out aloud here people, don’t shoot me!